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Probabilistic Trajectory Simulation ​

Some systems are not defined by outcomes.

They are defined by paths.

The Pattern ​

Trajectory simulation evaluates how a system evolves over time.

Each run:

  • updates state
  • samples uncertainty
  • produces a path

Execution Shape ​

text
initial state + uncertainty
    ↓
adapter (state model)
    ↓
mc@1 (trajectory execution)
    ↓
ensemble@1 (aggregation)
    ↓
artifacts + replay

Primitive Composition ​

  • mc@1 — simulates evolving paths
  • ensemble@1 — aggregates trajectories

What Gets Computed ​

  • trajectory distributions
  • divergence over time
  • instability accumulation
  • intervention sensitivity

Output Artifacts ​

text
trajectory_distribution
p50_path
p90_path
divergence_metrics
instability_signal
replay_token

Why It Matters ​

Trajectory systems expose:

  • path dependence
  • compounding effects
  • delayed failures

Why Forge ​

Forge enables:

  • large-scale trajectory exploration
  • deterministic replay
  • system-level visibility