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Monte Carlo Ensembles ​

Monte Carlo is a foundational execution pattern.

It transforms uncertainty from an abstract concept into a computable distribution.

The Pattern ​

Monte Carlo executes many independent iterations.

Each iteration:

  • samples uncertain inputs
  • evaluates a model
  • contributes to a distribution

Execution Shape ​

text
uncertain inputs
    ↓
adapter (model mapping)
    ↓
mc@1 (distributed iteration execution)
    ↓
ensemble@1 (aggregation)
    ↓
artifacts + replay

Primitive Composition ​

  • mc@1 — executes stochastic iterations
  • ensemble@1 — aggregates outputs deterministically

What Gets Computed ​

  • outcome distributions
  • tail risk
  • convergence behavior
  • sensitivity to inputs

Output Artifacts ​

text
distribution
p50
p90
p95
p99
tail_signal
convergence_metrics
replay_token

Why It Matters ​

Monte Carlo reveals:

  • rare events
  • instability
  • non-linear behavior

Why Forge ​

Forge makes Monte Carlo:

  • distributed
  • deterministic
  • replayable
  • operational