Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo is one of the core execution capability families provided by the Forge runtime.
This section contains canonical verification examples for Monte Carlo capabilities implemented by Forge. Every example is derived from a maintained execution profile and validated against the production execution pipeline.
These documents are not tutorials.
They are executable capability specifications that demonstrate how a Monte Carlo capability behaves under independent verification.
Purpose
Monte Carlo capabilities model uncertainty by evaluating many possible outcomes under a defined execution contract.
Although the applied domains vary, every Monte Carlo capability follows the same verification methodology introduced throughout the Verification section.
Each example demonstrates:
- canonical execution
- execution validation
- runtime evidence
- generated artifacts
- replay behaviour
- verification outcome
Verification Workflow
Every Monte Carlo capability is evaluated using the same lifecycle.
Capability Contract
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Canonical Smoke
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Canonical Validation
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Execution
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Runtime Evidence
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Artifacts
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Replay
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Capability AssessmentThe computational objective may differ between profiles.
The verification methodology does not.
Capability Categories
Monte Carlo capabilities currently span multiple computational domains.
Representative categories include:
Credit Risk
Examples focused on portfolio risk, credit loss distributions, stress testing, and expected loss modelling.
Documentation:
/examples/mc/finance.credit.loss_distribution_surface.v1/examples/mc/finance.credit.ecl_distribution_surface.v1
Capital & Banking
Examples focused on capital adequacy, liquidity stress, scenario evaluation, and financial resilience.
Representative capabilities include:
- capital buffer analysis
- stress scenario evaluation
- portfolio resilience
Insurance & Reinsurance
Examples focused on insurance loss distributions, treaty evaluation, catastrophe simulation, and portfolio aggregation.
Representative capabilities include:
- insurance loss modelling
- catastrophe simulation
- treaty optimisation support
Climate & Energy
Examples focused on uncertainty propagation across environmental and infrastructure scenarios.
Representative capabilities include:
- climate scenario simulation
- weather uncertainty
- energy demand simulation
- infrastructure resilience
General Simulation
Domain-independent Monte Carlo capabilities intended for reusable simulation workflows.
These capabilities provide the computational foundation reused by multiple Intelligence Modules.
Capability Document Structure
Every Monte Carlo capability document follows the same canonical structure.
- Overview
- Capability Contract
- Primitive Profile
- Verification Objective
- Canonical Smoke
- Execution Contract
- Runtime Evidence
- Generated Artifacts
- Replay Characteristics
- Capability Assessment
- Related Documentation
This structure remains consistent across every capability version.
Versioning
Capability documentation follows the version of the underlying execution profile.
Documentation versions should remain aligned with the corresponding Primitive Profile.
Older profile versions should remain available for historical reference where replay compatibility is maintained.
Relationship to the Runtime
Every documented capability corresponds to a maintained execution profile registered within the Forge platform.
Documentation is derived from the implementation rather than serving as its specification.
The implementation remains the authoritative source for:
- execution contract
- validation rules
- supported arguments
- execution policies
- artifact generation
- replay behaviour
Relationship to Intelligence Modules
Monte Carlo capabilities are reusable computational building blocks.
Multiple Intelligence Modules may reference the same capability without duplicating implementation or verification logic.
Examples include:
- Financial Intelligence
- Capital Intelligence
- Banking Intelligence
- Insurance Intelligence
- Reinsurance Intelligence
- Climate Intelligence
- Energy Intelligence
The verification methodology remains identical regardless of the consuming Intelligence Module.
Available Capability Profiles
Capability profiles are documented individually.
Each profile represents a single versioned computational contract and should be evaluated independently.
Profile documentation is organized using the canonical capability identifier.
Related Documentation
Final Principle
Monte Carlo capabilities are verified as versioned computational contracts.
Applications may evolve, industries may expand, and Intelligence Modules may grow, but the verification process remains anchored to the same canonical execution model implemented by the Forge runtime.